The state was Utah, the governor quoted the following in his veto statement:
Here are the numbers that have most impacted my decision: 75,000, 4, 1, 86 and 56.
- 75,000 high school kids participating in high school sports in Utah.
- 4 transgender kids playing high school sports in Utah.
- 1 transgender student playing girls sports.
- 86% of trans youth reporting suicidality.
- 56% of trans youth having attempted suicide.
The veto was overridden.
In the latest version I found of Nate Silver’s model (not 538), he has Ohio coming in at 52.4% for Trump and 43.6% for Harris, an 8.8% spread. I did not dig deeper to find the dates or particular polls from Ohio he’s basing that on.
However, based on these numbers, he is likely modelling that Trump wins Ohio in 90%+ of outcomes to Harris’s <5% of outcomes.
This is the same way he spoke to his model in previous elections. It wasn’t that Hillary was expected to win 80-90% of the popular vote or electoral college just weeks before the 2016 election, it was that his model had her winning that percentage of the outcomes when he ran the model.