Politicians and experts believe that, if neither side changes the balance of power on the frontlines, both attrition and international pressure could force a cessation of hostilities with a territorial split
I don’t think the comparison between Germany and Ukraine holds up:
Germany was divided for the duration of 45 years and had a literal wall dividing them physically for 28 of these years. German economy in the east was not based on capitalism. An entire generation and their children grew up in communism.
In contrast: Ukraine was split for the duration of 1 or up to 9 years, currently. Both sides of Ukraine use an economy based on capitalism. They are fed propaganda, but not of a completely different societal system.
Aside from a few spots e.g. Saxony Valley, the economy is in shambles in the East
The economy in the states of the former East is pretty comparable to the rural regions in the German south-west (Saarland, Rhineland-Palatinate). The economy is split rural vs. urban, not strictly East vs. West. The economy in the states of the former East (and poorer parts of the former West) is 20 to 30 percent below average German GDP per capita. Other countries do have similar or bigger economical differences between their cities and predominantly rural regions regions (e.g. France or the USA). Please don’t get me wrong: This is an issue, but it is not a uniquely German issue.
I am not saying it’s would be bad as Germany, but it would still be bad and an issue to deal with. The majority of fighting taking place in Eastern Ukraine, hence destroying a lot of infrastructure is not helping either. It’s certainly something Ukraine should already think about now, even if the end isn’t yet in sight.
I don’t think the comparison between Germany and Ukraine holds up:
Germany was divided for the duration of 45 years and had a literal wall dividing them physically for 28 of these years. German economy in the east was not based on capitalism. An entire generation and their children grew up in communism.
In contrast: Ukraine was split for the duration of 1 or up to 9 years, currently. Both sides of Ukraine use an economy based on capitalism. They are fed propaganda, but not of a completely different societal system.
The economy in the states of the former East is pretty comparable to the rural regions in the German south-west (Saarland, Rhineland-Palatinate). The economy is split rural vs. urban, not strictly East vs. West. The economy in the states of the former East (and poorer parts of the former West) is 20 to 30 percent below average German GDP per capita. Other countries do have similar or bigger economical differences between their cities and predominantly rural regions regions (e.g. France or the USA). Please don’t get me wrong: This is an issue, but it is not a uniquely German issue.
I am not saying it’s would be bad as Germany, but it would still be bad and an issue to deal with. The majority of fighting taking place in Eastern Ukraine, hence destroying a lot of infrastructure is not helping either. It’s certainly something Ukraine should already think about now, even if the end isn’t yet in sight.