a President who is predicted by polling to lose to Donald Trump.
Biden’s numbers are baked in.
No, we have a president who is ahead in some polls and behind in others, 6 months before an election (which is generally unreliable since the polls fluctuate wildly this early). Pollsters and political scientists unanimously report polling in June is not reliable this soon before Labor Day. Look back and you’ll see HIllary, Romney, and Dukakis all ahead at this point in previous elections. The reason we are having this conversation is because people got skittish about the Debate, but we don’t even have accurate post-debate survey data at this time. The snap surveys by CNN and others showed a muddle of some people claiming Biden won anyway and others not. More data will come in next week.
And don’t forget the counterfactual; if you replace Biden despite winning the primaries in a landslide, you will anger many voters. Millions of people voted for Biden and this was not close; they rejected Dean Phillips and alternatives. People voted for Harris as a known backup; skipping her and having Newsom take over will cause a storm and backlash of a size we can’t quantify yet. There simply isn’t any data on Democratic voters that show any Biden remorse; you’re operating on the vibes from social media and some pundits.
In truth, we really haven’t been through this already.
Correct, and replacing Biden is a huge risk. It could cost the election the same way John McCain took a gamble on Sarah Palin and lost.
Californians don’t matter here. Voters in swing states like Pennsylvania do. Ohioans are less likely to vote for Gavin Newsom over Biden. If you magically think that Newsom can ramp up a presidential campaign from scratch and beat Biden’s name recognition and win Wisconsin in only 6 months, you’re being insanely optimistic.
Look, I despise Biden since he ignored all his advisors and set a disastrous Gaza policy, and want anyone but him. He was one of the worst candidates of 2020 but since he was “the most electable” we were told to shut up and fall in line. His electability has faltered. But it’s almost July, the window of time to replace him and win already closed. I’m not going to keep arguing, we’ll agree to disagree.