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Cake day: June 15th, 2023

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  • Trump’s debate performance was awful, but so was Biden’s, and somehow because this country is weird as hell Biden is held to a much higher standard than Trump while also being immensely unpopular.

    Trump’s performance as a debater was awful. He ignored the questions put to him, and frequently lied through his teeth. But, you could put a clip from this debate alongside a clip from his debate with Hillary 8 years ago, and not really see much of a difference.

    The reason people are freaking out is that Biden’s age was on full display here. His stutter was much more visible, his voice was raspy at times, and he frequently couldn’t finish his thoughts before the mic went off. We also have a long history of his time in government to know how he used to be.

    If this election turns into a referendum on Biden’s age, he loses. Even though Trump is only 3 years younger. Trump doesn’t show it.


  • He still ranted and raved like a crazy person based on what I’m reading.

    His ideas and concepts were crazy, but his delivery really hasn’t changed much since we first saw him in debates in 2016. Biden’s clearly has. If you were living under a rock and didn’t already know everything you needed to about these two men, you never would have guessed that only three years separated them.

    I wouldn’t be surprised if Jim Jordan pulled his contempt Citation for the AG after this. They don’t need the audio of the Special Counsel investigation to put in attack ads anymore.


  • The closest thing we’ll get to that is in the polls over the next few days, and the moving forward to the election.

    But even then, the numbers don’t have to move very much in order to make a difference. GA has 11 million people, and Biden won there last time by only 11k votes. Do you think a GA poll (much less a national poll) would pick up 11k people there changing their votes, or 22k people deciding to not vote at all (or vote for the brain worm guy instead)? That can all happen in the margins, outside of any ability for the rest of us to detect it.


  • I watched it all, and Biden did a much worse job than Trump did. Trump lied his way through the whole thing, but we expected that going in. I don’t think Democrats expected Biden to look this feeble.

    No, not many people are going to change their vote because of this. But the last few elections have been one with very close margins in a handful of states. It doesn’t take that many people in certain zip codes to decide they can no longer support Biden to turn the election. They don’t even have to turn to Trump, they can go third party or stay home.

    I’m not a fan of replacing Biden this late in the process, if that happens for any reason other than Biden’s health then it basically renders all the Primaries invalid, and puts party officials in a position to make the decision, not voters. And let’s be fair: Democrats who were watching saw that Biden was actually able to make his points, and draw a clear distinction between his positions and his opponent. Nobody is saying that the substance of Biden’s performance was wrong, they’re all just upset over the optics of his performance, and his ability to attract those last few voters in PA and WI that he needs.

    I recall thinking that Biden lost the first debate in 2020, also. He managed to come back then. We’ll see about this time.






  • I don’t find it that hard to believe, they’re responding anonymously

    If they’re responding anonymously on the Internet, they could be anyone. We have no way of knowing whether they really are hiring managers, or whether the site doing this “poll” made it up for clicks. I’m skeptical of everything I read on the Internet, even if it comes to a conclusion I agree with.


  • dhork@lemmy.worldtoNews@lemmy.worldA ton of job postings might actually be fake
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    1 day ago

    I’d be very interested to know what the wording was in their survey of 600 “HR managers”. Because I find it hard to believe that companies would file job posts that they never intend to fill – and then admit it in a survey. I find it more likely the Internet is trolling them

    On the other hand, I would expect companies to put up job posts that they have every intention to fill if the right candidate comes along, but structure the job requiremrnts so that precisely 10 people in the entire country are fully qualified for the well-compensated position. And then complain that they can’t fill the position while collecting everyone’s resumes and getting back to a few of them saying “That position is no longer open, would you consider this one at half the salary?”



  • It’s all statistics. It means that if we ran the 2024 election millions of times in his model, Trump would win more than Biden. But we will only get one shot, so the number is kind of useless.

    I was watching the Mets game this weekend on ESPN, and they were ahead of the Cubs by a few runs. ESPN has a tracker that estimates “Win Probability” and their model gave the Mets a 75% chance to win. But have you seen the Mets this year? They’ve blown a bunch of games late. Every Mets fan watching knew that their bullpen wasn’t good enough to merit that rating.

    The Mets did end up winning that game. (Thanks, Grimace.) But that doesn’t change the fact that no matter what math is behind their win prediction model, it just doesn’t feel right to apply statistics like that to one-off events.