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Cake day: July 1st, 2023

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  • Many of the keys are subject to arbitrary interpretation; Nate Silver criticized his process and arguably has a better probability model with more consistent accuracy across thousands of races somewhere around 90%. Key 2 was given to Biden despite the writing on the wall that 2/3 of Democrats wanted a contest both before and after the primaries. Key 3 Incumbency these days is more of a liability with both candidates distancing themselves. Key 9 Scandals have lost a lot of meaning in the Trump era.

    Should be noted that he gave a full-throated endorsement of Hillary Clinton… only to predict she’d lose. The thing is, he had originally referenced in two different publications ahead of that prediction that she would specifically lose the popular vote. She didn’t. He then changed his model.

    Also I’m not a fan of this guy because he belittled with insults those who called for Biden to step down… Despite not giving a prediction on Biden at the time.


















  • That depends… Are you still voting Democrat? Because there are people who if Harris came out strong on guns WOULDN’T and that might not put us over the edge. After all, you probably agree with let’s say 70, 80, 90% of Democratic policy, but only 5, 10, 15% of Republican policy right? Strategic voting is necessary in our fucked up system.

    Unfortunately you do not represent the broader electorate; for there is a large swath of conservative people who still love their guns, and at best it becomes zero sum. Ultimately, the more she leans into you, the more she distances herself from millions of Americans who like their guns.

    So the key is to maintain an activist mindset and influence change in public opinion; only then will you see a change in candidate policy. But shooting yourself in the foot when the broader electorate isn’t there only to have the party you agree with 5% of the time win…? That’s just patently short-sighted because they’ll take us several steps backwards.

    So tell me when you have a magical plan to convince the majority of Americans who still believe in the 2nd Amendment to abandon it. And let me tell you: Sabotaging Democrats isn’t a fucking plan. That’s shooting yourself in the foot.