Again, the reminder that national polls are pointless. Washington, Oregon, California are all voting Biden, Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas are all voting Trump.

The states to watch are as follows and they have been leaning Trump harder and harder.

Pennsylvania - Biden vs. Trump, tied at 48. Add Kennedy, Stein and West and it’s a Trump win +2.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/

Michigan - Trump +3 in a one on one, +2 if you include Kennedy, Stein and West.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/

Wisconsin - Tied in a one on one race, Biden +2 including Kennedy, Stein and West.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/

Biden cannot win without these three states, full stop.

Other states to watch:

Arizona - Trump +6 to +7
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/

Nevada - Trump +8 to +11
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/

New Mexico - No polling recent enough to be remotely useful.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/new-mexico/

Biden fans are delusional thinking they can win Florida, Georgia and North Carolina:

Florida - Trump +8 to +10
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/florida/

Georgia - Trump +6 to +7
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/

North Carolina - Trump +2 to +10
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/north-carolina/