He said Trump had a 28% chance of winning, and Trump won. So he was also “right.” Do you see now why what you’re saying is incorrect?
If I say there is a 4 in 6 probability of a six-sided die rolling a 1-4, I’m correct, even though I’m going to be “wrong” many times. My probability is still correct, and we would verify that by rolling the die a thousand times and looking at the statistical distribution of each number coming up.
But you can’t rerun an election 1000 times to “prove” the probability.
He said Trump had a 28% chance of winning, and Trump won. So he was also “right.” Do you see now why what you’re saying is incorrect?
If I say there is a 4 in 6 probability of a six-sided die rolling a 1-4, I’m correct, even though I’m going to be “wrong” many times. My probability is still correct, and we would verify that by rolling the die a thousand times and looking at the statistical distribution of each number coming up.
But you can’t rerun an election 1000 times to “prove” the probability.
Suppose I said Trump had a 72% chance of winning the same election, which Trump won. Am I also “right”?
If so, how can it be that Trump has a 28% chance of winning and a 72% chance of winning?
If not, why is he right instead of me?