• WoahWoah@lemmy.world
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    2 months ago

    He said Trump had a 28% chance of winning, and Trump won. So he was also “right.” Do you see now why what you’re saying is incorrect?

    If I say there is a 4 in 6 probability of a six-sided die rolling a 1-4, I’m correct, even though I’m going to be “wrong” many times. My probability is still correct, and we would verify that by rolling the die a thousand times and looking at the statistical distribution of each number coming up.

    But you can’t rerun an election 1000 times to “prove” the probability.

    • FlowVoid@lemmy.world
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      2 months ago

      He said Trump had a 28% chance of winning, and Trump won. So he was also “right.” Do you see now why what you’re saying is incorrect?

      Suppose I said Trump had a 72% chance of winning the same election, which Trump won. Am I also “right”?

      If so, how can it be that Trump has a 28% chance of winning and a 72% chance of winning?

      If not, why is he right instead of me?