In my opinion, something is going to break within 6 months.
The inflation is still high and the danger of recession is still here.
Inflation is down to 2.4%. We are fairly close to the Fed’s target of 2%.
Which is a made up target with a wide margin. Many economists think a stable inflation rate might be 3% or higher! So 2.4% might already be on target.
Inflation is super down, like crazy down.
What’s going to happen is that the ripple effects of the current good economy will finally hit people a few months into Trumps term, they’ll give him all the credit, then when his policies decimate fucking everything and every poor person, they’ll find a way to blame either democrats or trans people and learn nothing.
I think it will take longer than that, there’s still a lot of rich people who don’t think Trump will really do the tariffs or the mass deportation. Once it becomes clear that is really happening the economy will likely start getting all kinds of messed up fast.
Also, as others have told you, inflation is actually low again currently and that is why rates are coming down now. This is the “soft landing” that everyone was talking about, just in time for Trump to take the helm.
The inflation is still high
Where are you getting that from? That’s not what the numbers say.
Go buy a good used car right now.
That isn’t an indicator of current inflation. Past inflation, maybe.
People confuse “everything is expensive” with “inflation is currently high”. It’s an understandable misunderstanding, and part of the reason why Kamala lost.
It’s because of hysteretic effects from 4 years ago when they stopped production of cars and fewer cars were sold because people were staying home. Then there was a supply chain crisis because of the aforementioned shutdown. It’s inflation because the dollar can buy less than it used to. Things being more expensive is inflation. You’re confusing inflation rate with inflation.
Inflation rate and inflation are the same. You’re confusing inflation with affordability.
That’s literally the definition of inflation. “Inflation is a loss of purchasing power that reflects a rise in prices for goods and services over time.”
That definition is literally describing a change, as rate of change.
Inflation is a loss of purchasing power
Over the past year, we haven’t experienced a loss of purchasing power. We have a lack of purchasing power, but we lost it over the 2-3 years prior to the last year.
a rise in prices for goods and services over time
This is pretty much the mathematical definition of a rate of change. Like how speed is the rate of change in position over time. After a day of traveling, your position (prices for goods) may be way different than your starting point, but if you’re not currently moving, your speed (inflation) is NIL.
Did you see the used car prices a few years ago? They’re trending downward.
That’s sales, not prices. Sales are down because prices are up. For $27k I can buy a Toyota Corolla hybrid and almost a Toyota Prius. Used car prices are slightly down because people are trading in crap with 200k miles.
It is not.
https://www.cargurus.com/research/price-trends
Used car price index
Want to track used car prices over time? Select a date range and car type to see your favorite vehicles’ pricing ups and downs.
Go buy eggs, bread and milk. Better part of a twenty.
As I’ve pointed out elsewhere, that’s not inflation. That’s a lack of purchasing power, not inflation which is a loss of purchasing power. We lost that purchasing power over 2022 and 2023, but the difference in price between November of 2023 and now is relatively small.
Corporate greed, not inflation.
I literally just bought these three items earlier today. I spent 8. High end of $20 is either exaggerating, or you’re buying some fancier foods than me.
These are dollar store brands. $4 milk, 4 bread, 4 eggs, $12+ tax. Location matters, so do food deserts. Last I checked, $12 was more than half of twenty.
That’s a little under $10 where I am in Seattle. No tax on food here. If I feel like driving a little bit to Target, it’s only $8. I definitely know of food deserts though. The town I grew up in only has Safeway and Walmart. The IGA closed down. Looking at prices, they are about the same as they are here which sucks because the incomes are nowhere near what they are here.
I’m alright with a week of groceries for the four of us choosing $125/wk but I know that is difficult for some.
What post election uncertainty?
The uncertainty over what Trump might break with his buffoonery.
I bet they cut it a half point after January.
