- cross-posted to:
- news@lemmy.world
- politics@lemmy.world
- cross-posted to:
- news@lemmy.world
- politics@lemmy.world
Donald Trump has not received a poll boost in the first presidential election survey conducted since the failed assassination attempt on Saturday.
The poll, conducted by Morning Consult of 2,045 registered voters on Monday, reveals that Trump is leading Joe Biden by just one percentage point on 46 percent, compared to the president’s 45 percent. The poll has a margin of error of +/- two percentage points.
If the margin of error is of 2 points, you can’t say that trump is leading, because both are statistically tied. I hate biased journalism.
Because the Republicans have a built-in advantage in the Electoral College, a Democratic presidential candidate has to be several points ahead in a national poll to even think about being level, in terms of electoral votes, which are the only things that really count in a presidential race.
I’d like this to be true, but remember that these national polls are not helpful to predict the electoral college. Unfortunately, Trump comfortably leads in many must-win states for Biden. Polls are usually wrong, but it’s the best information we’ve got.
Or he could be leading by 4 points.
Edit: 3 points. I guess I struggle with addition now D:
Akcshually just 3
If you’re leading by 1.5 points with a margin of error of 2 points, then it’s most likely that your lead is real. The range of error is a bell curve. It’s more likely for a well-conducted poll to be off by 0.5 points than 1.5.