Ukraine wants permission from the west to use long-range Storm Shadow missiles to destroy targets deep inside Russia, believing this could force Moscow into negotiating an end to the fighting.
Senior figures in Kyiv have suggested that using the Anglo-French weapons in a “demonstration attack” will show the Kremlin that military sites near the capital itself could be vulnerable to direct strikes.
The thinking, according to a senior government official, is that Russia will consider negotiating only if it believes Ukraine had the ability “to threaten Moscow and St Petersburg”. This is a high-risk strategy, however, and does not so far have the support of the US.
Ukraine has been lobbying for months to be allowed to use Storm Shadow against targets inside Russia, but with little success. Nevertheless, as its army struggles on the eastern front, there is a growing belief that its best hope lies in counter-attack.
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Exactly! You got it! They’re skittish because this is an election year and the bigger picture is this: 1) Signal to the pro-Palestinian group by way of leaks of how much Harris & Biden dislike Bibi now, 2) Publicly denounce the collateral damage done in Gaza, 3) Negotiate for a permanent ceasefire behind the scenes… All the while recognizing: IF Harris loses this election, then all your complaining and all the protests will just be ignored farrrrr more than they are now.
I mean look, even IF Biden pulls all aid. There is nothing stopping Trump from just immediately resuming it in 6 months. At the same time, we all know Bibi is a corrupt sadistic fuck who ignored obvious intelligence of an impending attack once already; so what’s stopping him from utilizing a false-flag after Biden withdraws aid to smear the Democrats and say, “Omg, look Biden took all the aid away and we were left defenseless against the rapist murdering Hamas!” <- This sinks a campaign, btw.
So here’s the calculus at play: You either toe the line with both groups to carve out the largest electorate possible to defeat the guy who couldn’t care less about Gazans and put an end to this FOR GOOD in February… Or you come down hard and risk losing the election and fucking Gazans for the next FOUR years — which is it?
Oh I agree that they’re in a no win situation. I’ve been aware of that and never in denial.
But to say they’ve been trying hard for a ceasefire fire is misleading at best. That’s the part I disagree with you on.
There is no convincing Bibi, that’s been made clear. He is perpetuating this situation for his own power, and the land he wants to seize. The only thing that’s gonna put a stop to it from our end is embargoes and sanctions, and even then that’s only ever going to do so much.
I think we agree on the meat of the matter. I’m just confused because you wrote:
but then also recognize why they can’t do these things; so within the framework of what they can and cannot do, are they not doing everything they strategically can do without jeopardizing the bigger picture of the election? That’s all I’m trying to say.
That’s why people like me who absolutely despise Bibi and are pro-civilian are trying to convey this message by trying to point to the big picture. I mean Bibi and AIPAC are basically doing all they can to get a Trump presidency, much like Putin. Leftists associating Biden and Harris with genocide ahead of the pivotal election is effectively shooting ourselves, and Gazans, in the foot.
Definitely.
It’s a no win situation after all.
Sure, that is what they’re trying to do. But the problem is that there is always going to be another election. They’ll always have motivation to not rock the boat on this. I don’t think there is any reason to hope they’ll change their behavior in February.
A good example of this is the democrat convention:
https://www.axios.com/2024/08/22/dnc-palestinian-american-speech-denied
They had an israeli speak at the convention, but when they were pressured to allow a palestinian to speak, they said no. Now I know the DNC/the people who run it and Kamala/Tim and the people that run their campaign are different. But I think this is a window into their psyche. It wouldn’t have cost them the election to have a palestinian speak, let alone a palestinian doctor like they were asking.
So if they can’t even do the right thing when it won’t cost them an election, why is it going to be any different in February? Sure, AIPAC would most likelt throw a fit over it, but enough to throw the election? Probably not.
I partially agree with you here. Yes, a lot of leftists are being short sighted and arrogant about this. But they have good reason to protest, because after all, our tax money is going towards turning palestinians into red mist.
Yeah I watched most of the convention, particularly the hostage’s parents speak, their CNN interview after, and Harris’s remarks of course. My two biggest complaints of the entire thing were:
They did not reach out to Rashida Tlaib, pay acknowledgement to the Palestinian protesters, or let the doctor speak.
Harris went into pretty evocative imagery when describing the brutality of October 7th, but became far more vague in describing the devastation and murder in Gaza. I’m not as scorched-earth as many of my fellow pro-Palestinians but even I saw the double-standard there.
And ALL the platform had to do was frame this entirely as, “Above all else, we are Pro-Civilian,” which is the exact same tact I take with anyone I argue with on either side of this conflict.
I have a lot of respect to the Hostage’s parents who honestly did go above and beyond what they needed to in terms of acknowledging the atrocities in Gaza.
What I’ve been trying to advocate for is, especially during this late in the election, focus on changing the minds of your fellow Americans. No campaign this late in the race will ever turn into an “advocacy mode” and take a position especially on a controversial topic that gets ahead of the polls. In other words, every single position from here until November will be crafted in lieu of what they see in their internal polling numbers especially with battleground low-info swing-voters who will decide this election. Thus, if you want to see continued evolution on this issue by the administration/campaign, you have to first influence the polls. So go on social media and argue with everyone you can sincerely and bring the brutal reality to the American people. We already see this to some extent if we compare the words and actions of the Biden administration the days following October 7th, versus now, correlated against public support for Israel.
I agree with pretty much you’ve said. Though I do want to add on to something.
I’ve taken a similar-ish strategy to this. The Biden campaign and then the Kamala campaign has been emailing me like 8 times a day every day asking for campaign contributions. And every single time I respond back with imagery of the brutality that is being enacted upon palestinians. Unsurprisingly they haven’t responded to a single one. I’m probably just sending shit to their spam folder.
But yeah, public opinion needs to shift on this. And I think it will, though it’s gonna be a few decades. You may already be familiar with this, but there is a common pattern in student/young adult lead protests, and social rights focused protests, is that in that a few decades after the protests, it turns out that public perception is retroactively on their side.
This happened with the civil rights movement, vietnam, we’ve seen this with LGBT rights, etc.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Student_protests_in_the_United_States
Take a look at these, and most of them are now popularly supported, especially the older they are.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/UC_Davis_pepper_spray_incident
This one in particular is only a decade old at this point, and the imagery behind this did far more for than any individual protest ever could have done.
So I think eventually the pro palestinian student lead protests will have an effect and be seen as the right side of history. Unfortunately it’s gonna take a long while, and in the meanwhile a lot of palestinians are gonna die. So all we can do is try to speed up that process of changing public perception.
Yeah thanks for the cordial discussion.
Oh yeah no doubt mass student protests have very often fallen on the correct side of history and there is no question they will be on the right side now. While it can be used as a point to get media time to break through echo-chambers, I worry that advocates are falling for a sort of pattern where the target of their frustration is Biden/Harris where instead they should be explaining to their out-of-touch aunts and uncles, “Have you seen the Palestinian father whose twins and wife were murdered by indiscriminate bombings by Israel? Did you know…” and so on… Of course then polls change; then administrations respond. But targeting the administration when their hands are effectively tied in reflection to polls puts the cart before the horse in my view. After all, popular policies tend to get adopted by both parties when they aren’t controversial (e.g., the no taxing of tips thing, regardless of how good it actually is…)
I know Putin’s long-term plans drastically differ, depending on a Trump or Harris administration. I assume that goes for Bibi as well.
Of course. It’s always nice to have a polite discussion. It’s hard to have them, especially in an election year.
And again, I agree with everything you said.
I agree, though the individual strategy there is very case by case basis. I know for me, personally, my parents wouldn’t change their mind ever. I could show them gorey picture after gorey picture sandwiched with mass graves, and they’d be unphased.
It’s a tough situation when your family is so stubborn.