I run this analysis in Politics whenever there’s a post about “New national poll says…” but we don’t allow self posts over there so it’s always buried in a comment.
National polls are useless because we don’t have national elections. Red states are gonna red state and blue states are gonna blue state.
So knowing that, here are the current results for states that are in play:
Let’s see the state breakdown now:
Arizona: Toss Up. Harris +1, Trump +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/
Nevada: Toss Up. Harris +2, Tie
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/
New Mexico: Harris +8/+11
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/new-mexico/
Texas: Trump +3/+5
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/texas/
Georgia: Harris +1/+2
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/
Florida: Trump +3/+4
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/florida/
North Carolina: Trump +1/+2/+4
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/florida/
Virginia: Harris +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/virginia/
Pennsylvania: Toss Up, 2 tied polls, Trump +1/+4/+5
Michigan: Harris +2, tie
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/
Wisconsin: Harris +4/+5, Trump +1
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/
Minnesota: Harris +5/+7/+10
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/minnesota/
So… changes from last time…
Nevada moves from Harris to toss up. Georgia has moved more to Harris. Michigan is still Harris but getting closer.
Plotted on the map, Harris only needs 1 of the three toss up states to win. Trump needs ALL THREE to hit 271.
Updated for 9/4:
As usual, national polls mean nothing without national elections, but lets see where we’re at…
Arizona - Trump +1, +3, +5
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/
Nevada - Toss Up - Harris +1, Trump +1, Ties
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/
New Mexico - Harris +7, +8, +11
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/new-mexico/
Georgia - Toss Up Harris +1, +2, Tie
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/
North Carolina - Toss Up Trump +1, Tie
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/north-carolina/
Pennsylvania - Toss Up Harris +1, Trump +1/+2, ties
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/
Michigan - Harris +3, +5, Trump +1, Tie
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/
Wisconsin - Harris +4, +6, Trump +1
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/
Minnesota - Harris +5, +7, +11
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/minnesota/
Arizona moves out of toss-up territory for the first time in a long time, moving to Trump.
Michigan is still with Harris, but slipping. Next round of polling could flip to Trump.
Let’s look at the map:
So, of the “Undecideds”, PA by itself puts Harris at 270. She could lose NV, NC, GA, AZ and still win with PA.
PA is NOT enough to win for Trump. That only puts him at 249. So he needs PA + 21 more. GA and NC are both 16, Nevada is 6.
So PA + any 2 other states, GA+NC, GA+NV, NC+NV.
If Trump takes PA and GA, and Harris gets NC + NV, she wins with 273. Same with GA + NC. 283 if she loses NV and takes GA+NC.
Much harder road for Trump to win here, but both of them absolutely must have PA.