I run this analysis in Politics whenever there’s a post about “New national poll says…” but we don’t allow self posts over there so it’s always buried in a comment.
National polls are useless because we don’t have national elections. Red states are gonna red state and blue states are gonna blue state.
So knowing that, here are the current results for states that are in play:
Let’s see the state breakdown now:
Arizona: Toss Up. Harris +1, Trump +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/
Nevada: Toss Up. Harris +2, Tie
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/
New Mexico: Harris +8/+11
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/new-mexico/
Texas: Trump +3/+5
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/texas/
Georgia: Harris +1/+2
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/
Florida: Trump +3/+4
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/florida/
North Carolina: Trump +1/+2/+4
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/florida/
Virginia: Harris +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/virginia/
Pennsylvania: Toss Up, 2 tied polls, Trump +1/+4/+5
Michigan: Harris +2, tie
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/
Wisconsin: Harris +4/+5, Trump +1
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/
Minnesota: Harris +5/+7/+10
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/minnesota/
So… changes from last time…
Nevada moves from Harris to toss up. Georgia has moved more to Harris. Michigan is still Harris but getting closer.
Plotted on the map, Harris only needs 1 of the three toss up states to win. Trump needs ALL THREE to hit 271.
These poll numbers don’t account for independents and third parties, correct? Wouldn’t you want to include these in the polls given the possibility of people not voting for Harris due to her Gaza stance?
Michigan very much does and it’s not significant.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/
8/25 to 28:
Harris - 47%
Trump - 44%
Oliver (Libertarian) - 1%
Stein (Green) - 1%8/23 to 26:
Harris - 49%
Trump - 47%
Oliver - 2%
Stein - 0%I was actually thinking of Michigan when making my comment. I was curious about the numbers. Thanks for providing them.
Looks good, but complacency is the devil. Harris has been calling herself the underdog in this race and she’s right. Because of the screwy way we do presidential elections, the Democrat is always going to be the underdog, and going to need to fight harder to win in a contest stacked against them.
I think that’s what Clinton didn’t really quite get in 2016. It wasn’t enough that she had popular support. She had to have popular support in the few states that actually matter in American presidential elections.
Yup. The coal miner comment was a killer and then utterly failing to campaign in Michigan and Wisconsin, assuming they were in the bag.
Updated for 9/8:
The last time I did this, Arizona flipped to full Trump, Georgia was leaning to Harris, but still a toss up and she was still ahead in Michigan, but losing ground there.
Let’s see what it looks like now:
AZ - WOW(!) 4 most recent polls are ALL ties(!)
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/NV - Toss Up, Harris +1, Trump +1, 2 ties
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/NM - Harris +7, +8, +11
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/new-mexico/GA - Toss Up, Harris +1, Trump +1/+2, 2 ties
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/NC - Trump +1, +2, tie
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/north-carolina/PA - Trump +1, +2, 2 ties
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/MI - Harris +1, 2 ties
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/WI - Toss Up Harris +1, Trump +2, Tied
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/MN - Harris +5, +7, +11
So, Arizona is out of the Trump column and back to toss up.
GA, NC and PA moving away from Harris.
MI I’m tempted to call a toss up but no recent polling there gives Trump an advantage, so it’s still slimly Harris as is NC and PA Trump.
WI moves from Harris to toss up and it seems likely MI will follow next week.
Plot that on the map and we get:
Trump needs 16. So GA by itself, or any two of WI, AZ, NV.
Harris needs 29. WI, AZ, NV is NOT enough. 27. So if Trump wins Georgia, she’s done.
She needs Georgia + 2 other states to win. Georgia +1 is not enough. The most she could get that way is 27 with AZ.
Updated for 9/4:
As usual, national polls mean nothing without national elections, but lets see where we’re at…
Arizona - Trump +1, +3, +5
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/Nevada - Toss Up - Harris +1, Trump +1, Ties
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/New Mexico - Harris +7, +8, +11
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/new-mexico/Georgia - Toss Up Harris +1, +2, Tie
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/North Carolina - Toss Up Trump +1, Tie
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/north-carolina/Pennsylvania - Toss Up Harris +1, Trump +1/+2, ties
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/Michigan - Harris +3, +5, Trump +1, Tie
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/Wisconsin - Harris +4, +6, Trump +1
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/Minnesota - Harris +5, +7, +11
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/minnesota/Arizona moves out of toss-up territory for the first time in a long time, moving to Trump.
Michigan is still with Harris, but slipping. Next round of polling could flip to Trump.
Let’s look at the map:
So, of the “Undecideds”, PA by itself puts Harris at 270. She could lose NV, NC, GA, AZ and still win with PA.
PA is NOT enough to win for Trump. That only puts him at 249. So he needs PA + 21 more. GA and NC are both 16, Nevada is 6.
So PA + any 2 other states, GA+NC, GA+NV, NC+NV.
If Trump takes PA and GA, and Harris gets NC + NV, she wins with 273. Same with GA + NC. 283 if she loses NV and takes GA+NC.
Much harder road for Trump to win here, but both of them absolutely must have PA.
October 25th:
“According to the final New York Times/Siena College poll before the election, conducted between October 20 and 23, Harris and Trump are tied on 48 percent each among 2,516 voters nationwide.”
So first, as usual, nationwide polling doesn’t mean jack. How many of those 2,516 voters polled were in states that are already going to go one way or the other?
We don’t have a national election, we have 50 State elections + Washington D.C.
We already know how states like California, Oregon, Washington are going to go. We already know how states like Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas are going to go.
We need to look at the tossup states, these are the states that will decide this. This is harder because of right wing pollsters flooding the channel recently to make Trump look stronger than he is.
AZ - Toss Up
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/NV - Toss Up
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/NM - Harris +4, 8, 9, 10
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/new-mexico/GA - Toss Up
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/NC - Trump +1, 2, 3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/north-carolina/PA - Toss Up
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/MI - Harris +2, 3, 4
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/WI - Toss Up
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/The polling analysis I did before this saw more states swinging to Trump, this one shows those same states moving back to toss up which indicates the momentum coming back behind Harris, which is just where she should want to be 11 days before the election.
Plotted on a map:
Advantage is with Harris.
Unlike before, PA by itself, is NOT enough to put her over the top. PA puts her at 260. PA+WI is a win, PA+AZ is a win, PA+GA is a win.
If she doesn’t get PA, she has a path with GA+WI and 1 other state, either AZ or NV.
If she doesn’t win EITHER PA or GA, she has no path to victory. WI+AZ+NV puts her at 268 to Trump’s 270.
Looking at the Trump side, same deal, PA by itself isn’t enough. PA+GA hits 270. PA+WI+NV = 270. PA+NV+AZ is 271.
Without PA, Trump has a path with GA+MI and any one other state, WI, AZ, NV.
If Trump loses PA and either GA or MI, he has to get WI+AZ. Losing either throws it to Harris.
So if you’re wondering why they’re putting so much effort into PA, that’s why. It’s the make or break state.
Latest run 10/8/24
So a couple of things…
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As usual, national polls are useless. Numbers after the jump.
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“pollster Frank Luntz said.”
- Obligatory “Fuck you, Frank!”
For those who don’t get that reference, it’s from Penn and Teller’s “Bullshit!” episode on polling:
Now… ALLLLL that being said… Last time I did this, Harris hit 270 exactly. First time this year any candidate hit the magic number.
AZ - Toss Up. Harris +1, +3, Trump +1, +4
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/NV - Toss Up. Tie, Harris +1, Trump +1
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/NM - Harris +5, +8, +10
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/new-mexico/GA - Toss Up, 5 separate polls show tie votes.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/FL - Trump +6, +13, +14
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/florida/NC - Toss Up, Harris +3, Trump +1, +2, +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/north-carolina/PA - Toss Up, Tie, Harris +1, +4, Trump +1, +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/MI - Tie, Harris +2, +3. 3rd parties 0 to 1%, no impact.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/WI - Harris +1, +2, +3, +4, Trump +1
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/MN - Harris +5, +6, +8
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/minnesota/Plotted on the map:
As usual, PA is a must win. If Harris takes it, that’s it, she doesn’t need anything else.
Failing that, NC or GA + any 1 other state. AZ + NV alone is not enough, that drops her right at 268.
For Trump, he has to win PA to stay in, that gives him 238, from there he needs 32 more. So NC + GA. Or NV + AZ and either NC or GA.
Minimum 1 state for Harris to win, PA. Also a 2 state win of NC or GA + 1 other. Max would be 3 states. AZ, NV + 1 other.
Minimum 3 states for Trump to win (PA, GA, NC), could be as many as 4 of the 5 outstanding (PA, AZ, NV, + GA or NC)
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The popular vote isn’t going to be close, Trump hasn’t won a popular vote yet.
The electoral college vote looks like it’s going to be a squeaker.
My #1 prediction is that voting will be down from 2020 because Covid increased voting by mail and we don’t have that this time around. Generally Republicans do better when fewer people vote.
But let’s run the numbers and check the map:
Arizona: Toss Up, Trump +1, Tie
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/Nevada: Toss Up, Harris +1, Trump +1
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/New Mexico: Harris +5, +10
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/new-mexico/Georgia: Trump +1, +2
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/North Carolina: Toss Up, Harris +1, +3, Trump +1, +2, +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/north-carolina/Pennsylvania: Harris +3, +5, +6, Trump +2
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/Michigan: Harris +1, +3, +5, Tie, Trump +1
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/Wisconsin: Harris +1, +2, +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/Minnesota: Harris +4, +5, +7, +9
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/minnesota/Overall, Harris looks a lot stronger than last week. Even losing Georgia, clawing back PA from Trump and moving Wisconsin fron toss-up to Harris gives her EXACTLY 270.
On the map:
I think this is the first time since Biden dropped out that any candidate has hit the magic 270 number.
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Workers rights? The CWA disagrees:
https://cwa-union.org/kamala-harris-champion-working-people
"Vice President Harris serves as the Chair of the White House Task Force on Worker Organizing and Empowerment. In doing so, she has helped advance dozens of policies to make it easier for workers to organize, to raise wages, and to strengthen workers’ bargaining power.
In the Vice President’s role as the president of the United States Senate, Harris has cast tiebreaking votes to confirm CWA’s former counsel Jennifer Abruzzo to serve as General Counsel of the National Labor Relations Board, to pass the Inflation Reduction Act to create green manufacturing jobs and to lower our prescription drug costs, and to pass the American Rescue Plan to save our pensions and to dig the economy out of the recession that she and President Biden inherited.
In 2023, Harris cancelled an appearance at an event to avoid crossing a picket line, and changed her hotel reservations for another event to avoid crossing a picket line held by the hotel’s workers.
Vice President Harris has personally met a number of times with CWA leaders and CWA rank-and-file members to hear our concerns and make sure that the White House’s agenda supports our needs."
Women’s rights? Pretty sure her stance on restoring reproductive rights is clear:
Which, you know, is also health care.
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Any increase over the bullshit $7.25 federal minimum now is a win, but yes, the $15/hr. was a discussion for 10 years ago, it needs to be more like $20-$25 now.
