I run this analysis in Politics whenever there’s a post about “New national poll says…” but we don’t allow self posts over there so it’s always buried in a comment.
National polls are useless because we don’t have national elections. Red states are gonna red state and blue states are gonna blue state.
So knowing that, here are the current results for states that are in play:
Let’s see the state breakdown now:
Arizona: Toss Up. Harris +1, Trump +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/
Nevada: Toss Up. Harris +2, Tie
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/
New Mexico: Harris +8/+11
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/new-mexico/
Texas: Trump +3/+5
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/texas/
Georgia: Harris +1/+2
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/
Florida: Trump +3/+4
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/florida/
North Carolina: Trump +1/+2/+4
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/florida/
Virginia: Harris +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/virginia/
Pennsylvania: Toss Up, 2 tied polls, Trump +1/+4/+5
Michigan: Harris +2, tie
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/
Wisconsin: Harris +4/+5, Trump +1
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/
Minnesota: Harris +5/+7/+10
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/minnesota/
So… changes from last time…
Nevada moves from Harris to toss up. Georgia has moved more to Harris. Michigan is still Harris but getting closer.
Plotted on the map, Harris only needs 1 of the three toss up states to win. Trump needs ALL THREE to hit 271.
October 25th:
“According to the final New York Times/Siena College poll before the election, conducted between October 20 and 23, Harris and Trump are tied on 48 percent each among 2,516 voters nationwide.”
So first, as usual, nationwide polling doesn’t mean jack. How many of those 2,516 voters polled were in states that are already going to go one way or the other?
We don’t have a national election, we have 50 State elections + Washington D.C.
We already know how states like California, Oregon, Washington are going to go. We already know how states like Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas are going to go.
We need to look at the tossup states, these are the states that will decide this. This is harder because of right wing pollsters flooding the channel recently to make Trump look stronger than he is.
AZ - Toss Up
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/
NV - Toss Up
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/
NM - Harris +4, 8, 9, 10
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/new-mexico/
GA - Toss Up
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/
NC - Trump +1, 2, 3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/north-carolina/
PA - Toss Up
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/
MI - Harris +2, 3, 4
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/
WI - Toss Up
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/
The polling analysis I did before this saw more states swinging to Trump, this one shows those same states moving back to toss up which indicates the momentum coming back behind Harris, which is just where she should want to be 11 days before the election.
Plotted on a map:
Advantage is with Harris.
Unlike before, PA by itself, is NOT enough to put her over the top. PA puts her at 260. PA+WI is a win, PA+AZ is a win, PA+GA is a win.
If she doesn’t get PA, she has a path with GA+WI and 1 other state, either AZ or NV.
If she doesn’t win EITHER PA or GA, she has no path to victory. WI+AZ+NV puts her at 268 to Trump’s 270.
Looking at the Trump side, same deal, PA by itself isn’t enough. PA+GA hits 270. PA+WI+NV = 270. PA+NV+AZ is 271.
Without PA, Trump has a path with GA+MI and any one other state, WI, AZ, NV.
If Trump loses PA and either GA or MI, he has to get WI+AZ. Losing either throws it to Harris.
So if you’re wondering why they’re putting so much effort into PA, that’s why. It’s the make or break state.